(Plus some useful reference material)
There is a lot of debate about 'the new normal' on TV, media, work and amongst friends and family. The last couple of years have seen some big challenges and some interesting choices in elections and referendums. I feel that the pace and impact of change will accelerate and things like Brexit and Covid-19 will be something to look at in the rear view mirror very soon.
Covid-19 has seen people reappraise their priorities and depending on circumstances, experiences may be very different but there has certainly been change. But aside from the things we can control, like attitude mindset, fitness, behaviour there is a lot we cannot change without engaging in community and/or politics.
In this discussion I will also reference a number of books that I think are helpful on the subject. This therefore is not necessarily thrusting my own views forward but offering information that might help the debate. So whether you agree or disagree (and good debate requires both) I hope you read some of the books because they at least offer valuable data, history, insight and ideas.
There is a lot of valuable discussion on social media about role, life, purpose and values. Also about physical and mental health. However for the remainder of this text I am thinking about the economy rather than personal philosophy or psychology. I am setting aside personal preferences, choices and values [1] and attempting to think like a monarch, like a benevolent dictator, like a capitalist or a socialist leader in-charge of a country.
This is important because our individual choices are as different as our individual needs and economic thinking should consider the diversity and community on a much broader scale and over a longer period (perhaps a generation or two) if it is to be successful.
If we take economy to mean production (products/services) , resources (land, labour,capital), trade [2] rather than wellbeing, education, public service and community [9] then we possibly need to think what will the world look like in 30 years and how do we prepare for that to be an opportunity rather than a threat?
We need to look 30 years forward [3] and think about technology, and the impact of artificial intelligence and machine learning [4] and the impact on society and wealth [5]. We need to reappraise the constant pursuit of growth and capitalism [6] and understand the hopes, fears of people [7] and how this affects our economic choices [8]
Whilst it is true to say that predicting is difficult [10] there are plenty of examples of people building robustness into their planning for the future [14] to weather the unpredictable, and indeed to thrive. [11].
So when we look at economy we need to think what are the PESTLE factors [12] and population [13] and have the conversation in that context, noting tightening of tax avoidance, increased wealth disparity, environment and climate issues etc., and a new expectation, nationalism, community from the public (manifest in the way they vote).
I mention PESTLE not because it is not obvious, but because it is so obvious that we often forget to look at the broader context of change when confronting our own community or personal change. Paddelling hard in any direction should take account of a change in wind and tide. Too often business and economic strategies fail to do this.
What will be the short, medium and long-term changes locally and globally for each of...
political
economical
social
technological
legal
environment
And how certain are we in our predictions 50:50, 60:40, 80:20. Enough to bet our future or will we hedge our bets across a number of possibilities [11]. I have seen business and government projections so wildly optimistic that I would happily bet £10,000 that their 90% confidence (9:1 odds) are wrong.
Perhaps to truly appreciate VUCA environments (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity) perhaps we should consider how each element has changed since 1990 when considering further, faster, more significant change to 2050.
Once we have some consensus assumptions (if indeed that is possible) we can then think. What do we feel are the POLICY PRINCIPLES and the government and business ACTIONS that should deliver them? Strategy at its most simple comprises {1} where are we now (do we have data?) {2} where do we want to be (is that suitable, feasible, acceptable) {3} how do we get there (competence, capacity, drive and desire.)
We improve our odds of getting things right using data both to establish baseline and progress. For example, how do we stack against OECD sustainability goals [15] and other countries [16]. Only when we understand context and have the data can think like a Treasury Minister or Chief Minister about what policies we want to employ to embrace the opportunities and avoid the risks.
Some useful references
[1] What Money Can't Buy: The Moral Limits of Markets Kindle Edition by Michael J. Sandel
[2] Talking to My Daughter: A Brief History of Capitalism Kindle Edition by Yanis Varoufakis (Author) Format: Kindle Edition
[3] Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow by Yuval Noah Harari
[4] How to Fix the Future: Staying Human in the Digital Age by Andrew Keen
[5] Utopia for Realists: And How We Can Get There by Rutger Bregman
[6] WTF?: by Robert Peston
[7] The Road to Somewhere: The New Tribes Shaping British Politics Kindle Edition by David Goodhart
[8] Out of the Wreckage: A New Politics for an Age of Crisis by George Monbiot
[9] Humankind by Rutger Bregman
[10] The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
[11] Principles: Life and Work by Ray Dalio | Sold by: Amazon Media EU S.à r.l. | 19 Sep 2017
[12] political, economical, social and technological, legal and environment factors https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_environmental_analysis
[13] https://theconversation.com/its-a-national-crisis-uks-birth-rate-is-falling-dramatically-121399
[14] Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock (Author), Dan Gardner (Author)
[15] http://www.oecd.org/dac/sustainable-development-goals.htm
[16] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Country_Index
I hope this text is not preachy that is not the intent. The purpose is to offer some hooks to hang our thinking on, and some books to help us decide what to hang there. There will be different views, possibly as broad and diverse as the people who express them. But a successful economy is one in which we can all live and thrive and must therefore take account of this.
If you have a different perspective or experience please comment below. If you are interested in forecasting or risk management get in touch.
TimHJRogers
Helping people and organisations get things done
Adapt Consulting Company
Consult CoCreate Deliver
@AdaptCCompany +447797762051
