HOW HAVING MORE DATA MAY INCREASE ERROR

In his book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Nassim Nicholas Taleb [NNT] argues that it is better to start with ‘real life’ and then read books than to start with books and try and apply to ‘real life’.

His point being that if we start with a theory and then go looking for an example to fit our model we end up finding something that fits our pre-conceptions. Taking the opposite approach should mean we come up with an explanation for something that is true in ‘real life’.

I found his book clever, difficult, inspiring and rude but never dull.

He is scathing of people who create models and spreadsheets that predict next month, next year, or next decade when we know that its difficult to predict the weather tomorrow. Take for example financial predictions.

Did you know that 50% of the price volatility in the markets is down to 10 days over the last 50 years. Can any of us predict the market behaviour for every-day for 50 years in the knowledge that miss just those 10 ‘special days’ and you’ll be out by 50%. Here is another thought: Did you know that for many banks all the cumulative gains of 50 years were lost in 1 week of trading.

Nobody 3 years ago would have predicted how the Brexit saga would have turned out. Indeed its difficult to predict next week let alone next month, next year, or next decade.

NNT notes that having more data confirms confidence, but not fact.

In his book Talking to Strangers: What We Should Know about the People We Don't Know Malcolm Gladwell notes many instances where computers get facts right based on very little data (example offender record, age, offence) whereas people get it wrong ostensibly because of too much data (they look innocent, they dress well, they speak with an accent).

Faced with all that extra data we are bound to find something to justify our notion. Again, more data confirms confidence, but not fact.

In his book Thinking, Fast and Slow Daniel Kahneman explains both the merit in quick thinking and the risk. This simple categorisation based on past experience, values, beliefs means we suffer “confirmation bias” – looking for things to confirm assumptions rather than go through the hard work of fresh and independent thought (potentially challenging or changing our experience, values, beliefs)

So, what are we to do if too much data confirms confidence, but not truth. And hasty thinking leads to false assumptions?

All this came to me today in a practical situation about risk. Looking at GDPR and Cyber Security there is a real risk that we suffer analysis paralysis: lots of data confirming how scared we should be, which ostensibly comes from the people who earn a living from these risks. Warren Buffet is alleged to have said “Never ask a barber if you need a haircut”.

We need to understand the context and maybe NNT is right. Maybe we need to start with ‘real life’ and then look at data rather than become too obsessed with what the spreadsheet or check-list says and be blind to the reality and practicality of it all.

As a guy who is data-driven and more about process than personality this is a new way of thinking for me. Like I said, NNT’s book was interesting because it challenged me and my assumptions. But when you put it in the context of all the other literature it seems clear: too much data blinds us.


FEEDBACK

I am interested in your thoughts and experiences. Maybe you agree. Maybe you do not. Maybe you can recommend some other books, blogs or videos. Do not hesitate to get in touch, and if you are in Jersey I will happily buy you a coffee if you would like to talk about your experience.

SOME LINKS

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Black_Swan:_The_Impact_of_the_Highly_Improbable
https://www.amazon.com/Talking-Strangers-Should-about-People-ebook/dp/B07NDKVWZW
https://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp/B000VXBVN6/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=black+swan&qid=1569264880&s=digital-text&sr=1-1
https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-and-Slow/dp/B005Z9GAJG/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=thinking+fast+and+slow&qid=1569264938&s=audible&sr=1-1

AUTHOR

@TimHJRogers +447797762051
https://www.linkedin.com/in/timhjrogers/
http://www.timhjrogers.com
MBA (Management Consulting) Projects & Change Practitioner,
TEDx & Jersey Policy Forum, Public Accounts Committee,

The 10X Rule by Grant Cardone
Great book summary by James Clear
https://jamesclear.com/book-summaries/10x-rule

I found the book interesting: There were sections I really disagreed with but it is valuable to see a different perspective. Equally there were large sections I strongly beleive to be true. Read with an open mind.


The 10X Rule by Grant Cardone
The Book in Three Sentences

The 10X Rule says that 1) you should set targets for yourself that are 10X greater than what you believe you can achieve and 2) you should take actions that are 10X greater than what you believe are necessary to achieve your goals. The biggest mistake most people make in life is not setting goals high enough. Taking massive action is the only way to fulfill your true potential.
The 10X Rule Summary

This is James Clear book summary of The 10X Rule by Grant Cardone. These notes are informal and often contain quotes from the book as well as my own thoughts. This summary also includes key lessons and important passages from the book.

1. The biggest mistake most people make in life is not setting goals high enough.
2. The 10X Rule is based on understanding the level of effort and the level of thinking required to succeed.
3. Operating at activity levels far beyond the normal is 10X action and execution. It will take you far.
4. Set targets that are 10X the goals you would ever dream of.
5. Your thoughts and actions are the reason you are where you are right now.
6. In order to go farther than you ever thought possible you must both think and act at levels 10X beyond the norm.
7. Why keep working once you have achieved a certain financial level of success? Because you can be happy while accomplishing things, not while resting and doing nothing. If you loved your wife and kids yesterday, should you just stop at that? Or should you build upon it? Same way with your work and legacy.
8. Limiting the amount of success you desire is a violation of the 10X Rule.
9. The 10X Rule: You must set targets for yourself that are 10X more than what you think you want and then take 10X the action you think is required to get there.
10. Common mistake 1: setting your sights too low.
11. Common mistake 2: underestimating how much action is required.
12. Common mistake 3: spending too much time competing and not enough time dominating their sector.
13. Common mistake 4: underestimating the amount of adversity they will have to overcome.
14. Any goal you set is going to be difficult to achieve, so why not set them higher from the beginning?
15. Most people feel like they are working – rather than chasing passion – because the payoff isn't large enough.
16. You will either work to accomplish your goals and dreams or you'll be used to accomplish someone else's goals and dreams.
17. Never reduce a target. Do not explain away failure. Always increase your actions.
18. Nobody wins when you diminish the importance of success.
19. People will say, “success isn't everything.” No shit. Of course success isn't everything. But it is important. And diminishing that importance with saying like “success isn't everything” gives you an excuse to limit your vision of success for yourself and the actions you take.
20. It is your duty to be successful. Do not view success as an option.
21. Being dependent on only one person or one solution for success is your fault. Winners bring in success from many different avenues.
22. Politicians make all these promises, but your success (or your children's success) is not dependent on politics. Whether one person gets voted in or not does not determine if you will win. As long as the system provides the opportunity to succeed, no one individual, politics, or president will dictate your success – except you.
23. Success by others is an indication that something is possible. It should inspire you.
24. Those who use blame as a reason for not achieving success will never be successful. Victim thinking doesn't benefit you.
25. If you're willing to take credit when you win then you have to be willing to take responsibility when you lose.
26. Even when bad luck or random events strike there is always something you can do to be better prepared next time.
27. If you were really legit, people would come to you. Stop driving and flying to everyone. Step up your game.
28. If people comment on your level of action, then you're doing something right.
29. The biggest business problem is obscurity.
30. Money and power follow attention.
31. Rid yourself of average thinking and average action.
32. Failing to think big in the beginning will lead to failing to act big.
33. Set your goals 10X bigger than you think they should be.
34. Top achievers don't copy or compete. They dominate. They set the pace.
35. How can you get an unfair advantage?
36. Never play by the agreed upon norms of your industry. Create new ways to dominate your sector.
37. You don't have to be the first to do something, but you should be the best at it.
38. Create “only” practices. What is something only you are doing?
39. You have to be obsessed. Nobody has ever accomplished something incredible without obsession.
40. The ability to be obsessed is not a disease. It is a gift.
41. What goal would cause you to be obsessed?
42. The saying “under commit and over deliver” is stupid. Instead, over commit and figure out how to show up at a higher level.
43. Don't follow the pack. Lead the pack.
44. Interesting trend: when people and businesses cut spending and focus on saving, they almost always save their energy, effort, and creativity as well. It is as if the mindset of dialing down spending naturally dials down activity in other areas.
45. Success is like a garden. You must constantly tend to it and care for it.
46. Most people never get close to being overexposed. Nearly everyone is hindered by obscurity.
47. Last minute preparation is just a way to delay and be fearful. Focus on training better beforehand and when the resistance comes face it and take action.
48. Fear is a signal to do what you fear right now. Do not feed fear by waiting and letting it build.
49. Don't worry about time management or balance. Instead, focus on abundance. Don't think either/or. Instead, think all/everything.
50. Time management is more about knowing your priorities clearly than finding balance.
51. When the author had his first child, he and his wife created a time schedule for his daughter's sleep that allowed him to spend an hour with her each morning, maintain the same work calendar. The bonus was the daughter was asleep by 7pm, which meant uninterrupted spouse time.
52. Nobody will save you or make you successful.
53. Weak and overwhelmed individuals resort to criticism.
54. Customer satisfaction is not nearly as big of a problem as “non-customer satisfaction.” People not knowing you exist and not buying your product is the real issue.
55. Create an exit survey for non-buyers. (Anyone who leaves sales page?)
56. Customer acquisition is the primary objective, not customer satisfaction.
57. Customer complaints are not to be avoided. They are problems you can solve.
58. Powerful companies and brands are omnipresent. You need to be everywhere.
59. The best revenge against your critics is massive success.
60. Duplicate the thoughts and actions of successful people and you too will become successful.
61. Approach everything with the attitude that it can be done. Believe that you will figure it out.
62. Losing money or a business never dominated your ability to take action.
63. The author told his whole staff they needed to make 50 sales calls. Then he told them they needed to make the calls in 30 minutes. He went and made 28 calls in 22 minutes. The point is to stop analyzing and paralyzing yourself with overthinking. Just act.
64. Challenge traditions and established ways of thinking.
65. Don't worry about how much work it is. Think about how great the results will be.
66. Commit first. Figure out the details later.
67. Reach up in your relationships. Find people better than you.
68. Taking massive actions is the only way to fulfill your true potential.

WTF – WHATS THE F that gives your life balance

About 2 years ago I took part in a PhD study of Mindfulness for Entrepreneurs and came to better appreciate that although success comes from almost mindless pursuit of a single goal there is real happiness in balance.

So success seems to be about focus and happiness seems to be about a diversity if interests and outlets, not least because it reduces dependency on one aspect of life.

Dr Alessio Agostinis had a great metaphor: think of life as a pizza and each slice as a different aspect.

I’m interested in understanding colleagues, community, country and cultures. As a change agent I am interested in people’s thoughts and motivations. So, as well as Mindfulness for Entrepreneurs I’ve taken an interest in CBT.

Cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) is a talking therapy that can help you manage your problems by changing the way you think and behave. It's most commonly used to treat anxiety and depression, but can be useful for other mental and physical health problems.

It seems to me that both Mindfulness and Cognitive behavioural therapy may be useful when managing change

Once of the CBT ways of tackling anxiety or depression is to increase the amount and diversity of positive experiences and a bit like Dr Alessio Agostinis’ life pizza the idea is to get out and do more (whilst recognising that doing this is a challenge, but essential for personal growth and happiness)

As a project manager and change agent I know simplicity is the key to success so here is my suggestion

Focus – have something that drives you: your job, vocation, beliefs
Friends – make time to see friends
Family – keep in contact with your family
Food – eat good wholesome food
Fitness – do at least 20mins three times a week
Fun – have fun, do something silly to make you smile
Following – follow your interests or hobbies
Freedom – have time “away from it all” to chill
Financial – work to have enough, but not at the expense of the above

So WTF – WHATS THE F that gives your life balance

Do not rush to leave something that is supposed to be fun.

I saw a meme on Linked-In that said ALWAYS LEAVE THE OFFICE ON TIME. Ostensibly this was about the futility of work and the need to have meaning in our lives beyond slavish efforts for the boss or the business.

Whilst I understand and respect the need for a work-life balance and the importance of Friends, Family, Fitness, Food, Fun and well as Finance my inclination is that if you are rushing for the exit at 5pm you are probably in the wrong job.

I’m not aware that great leaders or inspirational people delineate their time so precisely . Surely if you care for your colleagues, community, country or culture that isn’t something that is strictly between 9am and 5pm with a different set of values and behaviors at other times?

I am lucky that I like what I do, and what I do allows me to share ideas and help people and organizations achieve their goals. I realize I am lucky. However that luck is not without having to make difficult choices.

If you dread Monday or cannot wait till Friday then I suggest you make a change in your life because only living for the weekend means that over the course of your life you will slave for 50 years (five days) to enjoy 20 days (the weekend) that that is not a great return on your investment of time and effort.

Friends, Family, Fitness, Food, Fun are really important, but so is what you do. In many cases what we do defines us as a person, gives us identity and gives our lives meaning. It is great then to share the knowledge, joy and excitement outside of work. But I strongly suggest you find something that brings you the knowledge, joy and excitement for you to be able to share it.

Yes, you should have balance in your life but you should not be rushing to leave work any more than you would rush to leave a friend, family member or a fun party.

Is your strategy progressive or defensive?

I have helped a number of organisations over the years and from the passage of time and experience of different organisations and cultures have seen top-down command and control, management by objectives, and the shift towards vision and values with more bottom-up agile focus on leveraging capability.

I am currently reading Ray Dalio’s book and reminding myself of the many ways organisations structure and align their people, culture, objectives and goals. I am really enjoying the book, but perhaps more so because it is my current read. There are thousands out there on the same subject and I have probably read a hundred over the course of 25 years of consulting.

It is always interesting to apply theory to experience. I recollect a time when I looked at a list of “strategic projects” and decided to categorise them as follows…

1. DEFENSIVE: Tasks, Projects or Goals that are seeking to defend or protect the organisation. These suggest that the organisation is under attack

2. HYGIENE : Tasks, Projects or Goals that re “keeping the lights on” for example renewing assets, updating people, process and technology and generally aimed at maintaining the status quo albeit with necessary updates to continue business as usual.

3. PROGRESSIVE: Tasks, Projects or Goals that are seeking to revolutionise, evolve or fundamentally advance the organisation in a new way.

In this scenario this was an organisation and context I was unfamiliar with so I didn’t know what logic lay behind these choices. In this situation observing the strategy categories was like looking at an effect and wondering what the cause was.

When thinking about these three categories it is important to consider context. The PESTLE factors, SWOT factors or maybe the product lifecycle and BOSTON MATRIX (otherwise known as the Growth Share Matrix) or competitive environment PORTERS 5 FORCES.

The reason my ignorance might be interesting is that often strategy isn’t what you say but what you do, it isn’t what is written down but how you behave.

If your list of 50 projects reveals 90% of them are DEFENSIVE or HYGIENE that tells you something! To be sure I would not expect the spread to be 33% each, but it is thought provoking to consider what the ratios might mean.

So the choices on the list of Tasks, Projects or Goals tell me much more about the organisation than the management by objectives or vision and values because the choices and time spent in pursuit of Tasks, Projects or Goals is much more telling than the Business Plan or Strategy.


REFERENCES
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PEST_analysis
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SWOT_analysis
https://www.strategicmanagementinsight.com/tools/bcg-matrix-growth-share.html
https://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTMC_08.htm

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Dalio
https://www.principles.com/

About the book Principles

Ray Dalio, one of the world’s most successful investors and entrepreneurs, shares the unconventional principles that he’s developed, refined, and used over the past forty years to create unique results in both life and business—and which any person or organization can adopt to help achieve their goals.

https://www.amazon.com/Principles-Life-Work-Ray-Dalio/dp/1501124021

FURTHER READING
https://thefutureshapers.com/defensive-vs-progressive-transformations/

Feedback and comments always welcome

@TimHJRogers +447797762051
https://www.linkedin.com/in/timhjrogers/
MBA (Management Consulting) Projects & Change Practitioner,
TEDx & Jersey Policy Forum, Public Accounts Committee,
http://www.timhjrogers.com

Aligning company and personal goals

A result-oriented performance management system consists of three primary components:

1.    the daily management system,

2.    process integration,

3.    performance review process.

When synchronized, these three elements communicate, integrate and align multiple roles, departments, and functions towards common organizational objectives. 

So how do we achieve this?

Make sure everyone shares the same definition of success. 

Ask most groups in an organization to tell you what the definition of success is for a project they are working on and you will get wildly different answers. When I do strategic planning with organizations this happens regularly, and the downside is that without a common vision for the outcomes of an initiative there is little chance to succeed. Take the time to ensure that everyone has the same understanding of the problem to be solved, the implications of the problem and the definition of a successful outcome. It sounds simple, but it is not easy and this alone will increase your likelihood of productive results.

Make it simple: Using a white-board or Kanban board where the daily, weekly, monthly definition of success is there every time they look up is a good idea.

Help people see their role in the outcome. 

Once people have a clear and complete picture of a successful outcome, they need to understand their roles in producing that result. Draw a clear line of sight from the responsibilities that each individual plays on your team to the desired outcome. Translate those overall contributions to the tactical and practical day-to-day activities for each person, so they understand the importance of behaving strategically and in alignment with the goals for any given objective.

Make it simple: Show how the model day, model, week, model month of every day routines and behaviours add up to the end result. Rather than manage outputs, manage behaviour and routine. Fix the process, not the people.

Align your performance drivers. 

In every organization there are systems that support the achievement of objectives but those systems, if not aligned, can become barriers to the attainment of your goals. Pay attention to things like infrastructure, compensation, staffing, career development, and even how cross-functional collaboration.

Make it simple: Ensure that key behaviours, projects, outputs and outcomes feature in performance review and appraisal, but also the daily thanks, the weekly congratulations and the end of project celebrations.

Focus on commitment not compliance. 

At the end of the day what you are driving for is a sense of commitment to the organization and its objectives. While motivation for most comes from within, great leaders are able to create an environment that makes people want to go the extra mile. Help people gain a sense of ownership of the organizations direction and goals.

Make it simple: Use rules, guides and check-lists to aid critical thinking rather than ridged compliance. Trust people to try and have a safety net to encourage keep them safe.

More Information

https://7geese.com/okrs-why-alignment-is-crucial-for-your-organization/

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Business%20Functions/Operations/Our%20Insights/The%20lean%20management%20enterprise/The%20aligned%20organization.ashx

https://www.lce.com/The-Power-of-Alignment-Connecting-Individuals-to-Organizational-Objectives-2028.html

https://blog.jostle.me/blog/team-alignment/

Escaping the Drama Triangle to deliver change

I run a number of facilitation workshops for different organisations to help unblock the path to success

In many cases this isn’t about introducing new initiatives but actually just removing blockers.

What is interesting is the Drama Triangle that often provides a THEM and US story and why people are POWERLESS and NOTHING EVER CHANGES

1. The Victim: The Victim's stance is "Poor me!" The Victim feels victimized, oppressed, helpless, hopeless, powerless, ashamed, and seems unable to make decisions, solve problems, take pleasure in life, or achieve insight. The Victim, if not being persecuted, will seek out a Persecutor and also a Rescuer who will save the day but also perpetuate the Victim's negative feelings.

2. The Rescuer: The rescuer's line is "Let me help you." A classic enabler, the Rescuer feels guilty if they don't go to the rescue. Yet their rescuing has negative effects: It keeps the Victim dependent and gives the Victim permission to fail. The rewards derived from this rescue role are that the focus is taken off of the rescuer. When they focuses their energy on someone else, it enables them to ignore their own anxiety and issues. This rescue role is also pivotal because their actual primary interest is really an avoidance of their own problems disguised as concern for the victim’s needs.

3. The Persecutor: (a.k.a. Villain) The Persecutor insists, "It's all your fault." The Persecutor is controlling, blaming, critical, oppressive, angry, authoritative, rigid, and superior.

It is really important to listen to the Drama Triangle and help people break-out. Once you have escaped the trap you have a new path. My role as facilitator is to help them blaze a new trail to examine people, process and technology to think about policy and practices, structure and culture to build a new set of circumstances.

As a former athlete and now coach I love the aim: We create the environment where success is inevitable, which is based on Lane4

I am also a fan of Team Sky “Rules of the Bus” which I adapted for the World Champs Rowing Squad to be Rule of the Boat

1. We will respect each other and watch each other’s backs
2. We will train hard but sensibly and responsibly to drive performance and avoid injury
3. We will be honest, but fair with each other
4. We will be on-time
5. We will communicate openly and often
6. We will put aside any personal preferences to make the boat go faster
7. We will debrief after every race
8. We will maintain a log of training and Personal Best milestones which we will be available for everyone in the team to see
9. We will always wear team kit
10. After every session every team-member will shake hands – ritual is important to trust
11. We will respect the boat
12. We will be professional when racing: We will respect our opponents and be magnanimous in victory and gracious in defeat.
13. We will request any changes to be made to boat set-up the day before a race and not on race day
14. These rules (and any that are added, amended or deleted) will be agreed and followed by us all.

I feel this approach to taking ownership and managing behaviours make a real difference

See great video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_XSeUYa0-8

More Information
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karpman_drama_triangle
https://www.lane4performance.com/insight/blog/creating-an-environment-where-success-is-inevitable/. 
 
Feedback and comments always welcome


@TimHJRogers +447797762051
https://www.linkedin.com/in/timhjrogers/
MBA (Management Consulting) Projects & Change Practitioner,
TEDx & Jersey Policy Forum, Public Accounts Committee,
http://www.timhjrogers.com